Socio-economic assistance baseline for normalization program in BARMM pushed

The Office of the Special Assistant to the President (OSAP) is working to complete a clear and accurate baseline report on socio-economic assistance provided under the government’s normalization program in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

In a meeting with the socio-economic subcluster of the Inter-Cabinet Cluster Mechanism on Normalization (ICCMN), agencies reviewed what has already been delivered and what still needs to be done.

The office reiterated that the goal is to ensure all data are correct, updated and aligned.

According to the OSAP, there is an urgent need to establish baseline data to determine the actual achievements and remaining targets for 2026 to 2028.

Officials said the final figures will largely depend on the needs assessment being conducted by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) for each decommissioned combatant.

The national government also plans to separate or ‘disaggregate’ data under the PAMANA Program to focus specifically on interventions related to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) normalization process.

SAP Anton Lagdameo Jr., on behalf of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., initially reaffirmed the national government’s full support for the continued implementation of the normalization process.

‘On behalf of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, allow me to reaffirm this administration’s full support for the continued implementation of the Peace Agreements and the normalization process. We remain committed to ensuring that the hard earned and deeply meaningful [gains] are protected, expanded and carried into the next generation,’ said Lagdameo.

This reflects the President’s strong commitment to supporting local government participation in peacebuilding and recognizing the vital role of the normalization program in BARMM.

‘Normalization ensures human security. It is a testament to the partnership between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in ensuring that the gains of peace benefit all Filipinos,’ the President earlier said.

Meanwhile, the OSAP aims to complete the baseline data, covering both fulfilled and pending assistance, within the first quarter of 2026. This will serve as the basis for setting targets from 2026 to 2028 and for drafting a Joint Roadmap moving forward.

ICC prosecutors: Duterte has no valid reason to skip pre-trial hearing

International Criminal Court prosecutors are asking the judges to compel former President Rodrigo Duterte to show up in his own pre-trial hearing next week, saying his health arguments have already been settled and his refusal to watch remotely is itself proof of his contempt for the court.

The filing, signed by ICC Deputy Prosecutor Mame Mandiaye Niang and released Thursday, February 19, came a day after Duterte’s lawyer Nicholas Kaufman notified the Pre-Trial Chamber I that his client would not appear at the February 23-27 hearing in-person or otherwise.

“The Prosecution respectfully requests that the Chamber reject Mr Duterte’s request to waive his right to appear at the confirmation hearing. There is no reasonable cause for Mr Duterte not to appear in person in court at the confirmation hearing,” the filing read.

The confirmation of charges hearing next week is the proceeding that will determine whether Duterte faces a full trial for murder as a crime against humanity in relation to his drug war as Davao City mayor, and later, as president.

Duterte said in the letter that he continues to reject the ICC’s jurisdiction, called his March 2025 arrest a “kidnapping” arranged by the Marcos administration, and said he was “old, tired, and frail” with no wish to sit through proceedings he would “forget within minutes.”

Prosecutors rejected each of Duterte’s grounds, according to the six-page filing.

On his health: the same pre-trial chamber, backed by an independent panel of three medical experts, already ruled in January that Duterte was physically and mentally fit to participate in the proceedings.

The panel had also unanimously found that Duterte is an unreliable historian of his own health and mental fitness. His complaints, prosecutors wrote, cannot now be “recycled” as cause to hold the hearing without him present.

Prosecutors also said Duterte’s refusal to even watch via video link reveals his continued contempt for the court.

“The fact that Mr Duterte has stated that he will not even follow the proceedings via video link demonstrates that his reasons to avoid appearing in public are not health related but rather due to his lack

of respect for the Court,” the filing read.

The prosecution also pointed to the contradiction of the defense’s own filings. On January 9, Duterte’s counsels had submitted a document to the chamber complaining that the former president had “not been seen in court for ten months.”

“Duterte’s sudden heel-turn on this matter now, days before he is due to face the substantive criminal charges made against him, should be rejected by the Chamber,” the filing read.

Duterte’s appearance during the hearing would be a “significant milestone” for the victims part of the proceedings, the prosecutors wrote.

“As previously submitted by the Prosecution, it is also important that the proceedings are open and that Mr Duterte is visible while he defends the criminal charges made against him,” the prosecution wrote.

Duterte has been held at the ICC detention facility in Scheveningen in the Netherlands since his March 2025 arrest.

He has been charged with three counts of crimes against humanity over murders that took place as part of his violent anti-illegal drugs campaign. The former president has persistently maintained his innocence.

The charges cover killings carried out between November 2011 and March 2019 – the period when the Philippines was still bound by the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute.

Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the treaty in 2018, widely seen as an attempt to shield himself from ICC scrutiny, but the court retained jurisdiction over crimes committed before the withdrawal took effect.

Senate bill seeks estate tax amnesty extension to 2028

Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri has filed in the Senate another bill seeking to extend the estate tax amnesty period to Dec. 31, 2028.

Senate Bill No. 1865, or an Act Further Extending the Period of Availment of the Estate Tax Amnesty, was filed on Wednesday to extend for a third time the deadline for estate tax settlement, in order to ease the financial burden of heirs of property owners who have died.

The most recent amendment to the Estate Tax Amnesty Act, or Republic Act No. 11213, set the deadline for settlements on June 14, 2025, which had already lapsed.

‘Despite the government’s good-faith efforts, a significant number of Filipino families, particularly those from low- and middle-income sectors still continue to face serious obstacles in regularizing inherited properties,’ according to Zubiri’s bill.

The bill also seeks to expand the coverage of the amnesty collection to the descendants of those who died before Dec. 31, 2024, instead of before May 31, 2022.

Under the estate tax amnesty law, the government collects 6 percent of a deceased person’s estate before it is transferred to the heirs.

In his bill, Zubiri noted that despite the two previous deadline extensions, those facing financial constraints still struggle to pay for the estate tax especially after penalties, and interests incurred when they fail to meet the settlement deadline.

According to the Tax Code, those who fail to settle the estate tax on time may have to pay a 25-percent penalty for late payment, a 50-percent penalty for willful neglect or fraudulent returns, and an interest of 12 percent annually.

Sara Duterte told: Palace bid no defense vs impeachment

Vice President Sara Duterte’s announcement that she will run for president in 2028 cannot be used as a defense against allegations raised in the impeachment complaints against her, Manila Rep. Bienvenido Abante Jr. said on Thursday.

Abante, who endorsed the fourth impeachment complaint against Duterte, said the charges against the Vice President did not deal with her possible presidency but about accountability as the second highest official in the land and her fitness to continue holding that office.

In response to a reporter’s question, the lawmaker said he did not see her announcement as a ‘disadvantage’ to the impeachment proceedings ‘because we’re not talking about 2028.’

‘This is about 2026, about whether the Vice President remains fit to hold the second-highest office in the land. I’m not talking about her plan for the presidency, I’m talking right now on her current position as Vice President,’ Abante said.

‘Candidacy announcements do not erase accountability,’ he added. ‘Running for president is not a defense to grave allegations. It is precisely why accountability must be faced squarely and promptly.orsed by Deputy Speaker

Lawyer Nathaniel Cabrera filed the fourth impeachment complaint against Duterte on Wednesday afternoon. It was based primarily on her alleged misuse of P612.5 million in confidential funds (CF), nondeclaration of all her assets, abuse of power, bribery of officials and her threats against the lives of President Marcos, first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos and former Speaker Martin Romualdez.

Deputy Speaker Paolo Ortega V also endorsed the complaint and it was received by House Secretary General Cheloy Velicaria Garafil.

Cabrera segregated the grounds for impeachment against Duterte into three categories: culpable violation of the 1987 Constitution, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, bribery, and other high crimes.

Hours before the complaint was filed, Duterte made her announcement, ending years of speculation about her quest for the presidency.

‘Heart of public trust’

According to Abante, Duterte’s declaration should give her even more reason to face the charges against her ‘because the people are the ones affected here-not her, but the people.’

He said he endorsed the complaint because the allegations ‘go to the very heart of public trust.’

‘Impeachment exists for exactly this situation-when a public official’s actions raise serious questions of integrity, legality and fitness to serve. And I’m not referring to a future position, I’m referring right now to the current position she has, as Vice President,’ Abante said.

There have been questions raised about Duterte’s own presidential ambitions even before she agreed to be the running mate of Mr. Marcos in 2022.

Duterte, who was then Davao City mayor, was being pushed as successor to her father, ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, but she chose to form the ‘Uniteam’ alliance with Mr. Marcos.

Not long after the elections, however, relations between the two started to sour and the alliance began to shake. In May 2023, Duterte resigned from Lakas-CMD, the political party of Marcos’ cousin, then Speaker Romualdez.

Political veterans like the late Albay Rep. Edcel Lagman believed that Duterte’s resignation was related to the House’s decision to remove the senior deputy speakership post from former President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo-considered to be the Vice President’s mentor.

Denied CF allocations

After the House decided not to give Duterte’s offices any CF allocations in 2023, Duterte’s father and her brother, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, started criticizing Marcos and accusing him of being a drug addict.

In January 2024, Marcos fired back, saying that his predecessor’s outbursts may have been due to long use of fentanyl-a potent opioid that Duterte had admitted taking for his shoulder pain from a motorcycle accident.

By June 2024, Duterte decided to resign from her post as education secretary, formally breaking with the Marcos administration.

After her resignation, several congressional investigations followed, revealing alleged irregularities in the spending of CF allocations by the Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education.

First impeachment

The investigations’ findings-along with Duterte’s statements that she arranged the killing of Marcos, the first lady and Romualdez if she were killed in an alleged assassination plot-were used for the first set of impeachment complaints against her.

She was impeached on Feb. 5, 2025, after 215 House members signed the fourth complaint that was filed against her at the time.

But on July 25 that year, the Supreme Court, deciding on petitions questioning her impeachment, ruled that her impeachment was unconstitutional for violating the rule barring multiple impeachment processes against the same official within one year.

The House filed a motion for reconsideration but it was dismissed with finality by the Court on Jan. 29.

New complaints

Garafil’s office said in a statement that the verified complaint endorsed by Abante was transmitted on Thursday to the Office of Speaker Faustino ‘Bojie’ Dy III.

Under current House rules, and in accordance with the Supreme Court’s Jan. 29 decision that sets the reckoning dates for the impeachment process, Dy has until March 2 to transmit the first two impeachment complaints to the House committee on justice.

The first two impeachment complaints-filed by Makabayan Coalition and civil society groups-were received by Garafil’s office on Feb. 2. The third complaint from clergy members and lawyers, meanwhile, was filed on Feb. 9.

The Supreme Court decision requires that impeachment complaints be included in the Order of Business of the House within 10 session days. Following the Court’s new definition of a calendar day-a day in which the House holds session-there have been seven session days from Feb. 2 to Feb. 18.

The eighth and ninth session days would be on Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, while Feb. 25 would not be counted as it is a holiday. Feb. 16 and Feb. 17 were also not included in the count as the House did not hold session on those days, with the 16th being a session break and the 17th being the Lunar New Year holiday.

What Edo people’s cheers mean for Okpebholo’s infrastructure plan

WHEN Edo residents line the streets to wave, chant, and applaud during Governor Monday Okpebholo’s project inspection, it is no longer a routine spectacle. It is civic feedback in its purest form. The repeated scenes of jubilation during his inspections of major road and flyover projects reveal something deeper than excitement – they signal validation of the infrastructure component of his S.H.I.NE agenda and growing public acceptance of his development philosophy.

Two recent inspections bring this reality lower home. A few days ago, residents of Benin City gathered around the Temboga-Ekiuwa-University of Benin (UNIBEN) Road project and the Oba Erediauwa Road, off Upper Mission Road, to welcome the governor. Chants, applause, and cheers greeted him as he toured the site with the project engineers, witnessing firsthand the progress of road construction. Few day later, at Ikpoba Hill in the Ikpoba-Okha Local Government Area, residents again trooped out in large numbers for his unscheduled inspection of the Ramat Park flyover, which is now confirmed, about 90 per cent completed. Market women, traders, motorists, and business owners cheered and sang in appreciation of what they described as a landmark infrastructure project aimed at easing long-standing traffic congestion.

Many students of public administration see infrastructure often as the most visible and measurable indicator of performance. Roads, bridges, and flyovers are not abstract policies; they are physical assets that touch daily lives. When citizens cheer at construction sites, they are responding to tangible change. They can see the gravel mixed with cement before asphalt is laid, the pillars rising, and traffic patterns gradually being redefined. That visibility builds credibility in a way speeches rarely can.

The clear implication of public applause is trust in delivery. Edo people are not reacting to Governor Okpebholo’s promises; they are reacting to progress. Projects that once existed in imagination or as proposals are now nearing completion. When a flyover moves toward 90 percent completion or a strategic road begins to reshape connectivity, citizens interpret that as evidence of determination, commitment, and seriousness. The cheers, therefore, reflect confidence that Governor Okpebholo commitments are being translated into outcomes.

There is also a practical dimension to this public endorsement. Traffic congestion, poor road networks, and limited urban connectivity have long constrained productivity in key parts of Benin City and surrounding communities. Gridlock costs time and money. Businesses suffer when customers struggle to access markets. Commercial drivers lose income when trips take longer than necessary. By prioritising transport infrastructure, the administration is targeting economic bottlenecks directly.

The Edo people who cheered at the project sites, in effect, acknowledged relief. They are expressing optimism that daily frustrations will soon ease. For traders, it means smoother customer flow. For motorists, it means shorter travel time. For residents, it means improved accessibility and potentially higher property values. Infrastructure, in this context, becomes both a social and economic catalyst.

The other critical meaning behind the applause is acceptance of vision. Governor Okpebholo’s infrastructure plan appears structured around connectivity and long-term urban planning rather than scattered interventions. Strategic roads linking major corridors and flyovers addressing chronic congestion reflect an attempt to modernize movement within the state capital and beyond. The public reaction suggests that citizens recognize this pattern and are aligning with it.

Leadership visibility further amplifies this effect. Governor Monday Okpebholo’s physical presence at inspection sites sends a message of oversight. The leader stepped onto project grounds, engaging contractors, and publicly assessing quality and timelines, signals accountability. Citizens often interpret such actions as evidence that projects will not be abandoned or compromised. The cheers, therefore, represent reassurance – a belief that supervision is active and standards are being enforced.

There is also a psychological component at play. Infrastructure development influences public mood. In environments where cynicism about government projects is common, visible and sustained progress can reverse skepticism. When residents who once doubted see concrete pillars rising and roads expanding, perceptions shift. Applause becomes a sign that doubt is giving way to belief.

Politically, the implications are equally significant. Public endorsement strengthens legitimacy. When citizens voluntarily demonstrate support during inspections, it suggests that infrastructure policy is resonating at the grassroots. That grassroots validation can create a reinforcing cycle: visible projects generate approval; approval encourages continuity; continuity sustains development.

It is also worth noting that infrastructure projects often bring temporary inconveniences – diversions, traffic slowdowns, and construction noise. The fact that residents at Temboga-Ekiuwa-UNIBEN Road, Oba Erediauwa Road, and Ramat Park still cheered despite short-term disruptions indicates patience and long-term thinking. They are willing to endure temporary discomfort because they anticipate lasting benefits. That level of public cooperation is critical for successful implementation.

Ultimately, what Edo people’s cheers mean for Governor Okpebholo’s infrastructure plan is simple but profound: the projects are being experienced, not merely announced. Citizens are responding to what they can measure in their daily lives. They are acknowledging progress that touches mobility, commerce, and urban structure.

The applause echoing across Temboga-Ekiuwa-UNIBEN Road, Oba Erediauwa Road, and Ramat Park reflects more than approval of construction work. It reflects a collective endorsement of direction – a sign that the infrastructure plan is not just technically sound but socially accepted.

That alignment between leadership intent and public expectation, sustained, could prove decisive. Infrastructure thrives where there is trust, and trust thrives where there is delivery. For Governor Okpebholo, the cheers from Edo streets suggest that, at least for now, the two are moving in the same direction.

Ebojele is the Chief Press Secretary to Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State

BAO Lekansi: Infrastructure, unity and the Ekiti moment

IN about four months, Ekiti will return to the polls to re-elect our governor, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO). It is significant to note his unanimous adoption as the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ekiti State. In contemporary Nigerian politics, renomination is never automatic, even for sitting governors within the ruling parties. Consensus within the party speaks of deeper values, political stability anchored on broad-based acceptance among party faithful. Beyond party arithmetic lies the more compelling story of tangible governance. In December 2025, Ekiti witnessed a defining moment when the maiden commercial flight landed at the Ekiti Agro-Allied International Cargo Airport. The airport project has traversed administrations from Engr. Segun Oni to Kayode Fayemi, to Ayodele Fayose, back to Fayemi, and now to Biodun Oyebanji. With each government came revisions, debates over cost, project viability, and shifting implementation strategies. Yet on that historic day, all past governors sat together. Symbolism met substance. Ekiti projected unity. The message was unmistakable: development must outlive politics.

Last week, I drove on the recently commissioned ring road in Ado-Ekiti. We joined the road just after Ekiti State University (EKSU) along the Ado-Ifaki Road and arrived at the Ado-Ijan Road in under ten minutes. As our elders say, iroyin o to afoju ba (no report matches the reality of sight). That road is more than asphalt. It is economic architecture. It seamlessly opens neighbouring communities of Afao, Are, Iworoko, Ifaki, and Oye into Ado-Ekiti and onward to the Ekiti Knowledge Zone (EKZ). That corridor already hosts multiple higher educational institutions. What the ring road has done is remove the friction of distance. It has shortened travel time, reduced transport costs, and created the physical conditions for knowledge exchange, research collaboration, and academic mobility. This is how infrastructure catalyses human capital development.

Already, housing estates are springing up along that axis. One notable development is Ojaja Park, owned by HRM Adeyeye Ogunwusi, the Ooni of Ife. Real estate does not speculate blindly; it responds to signals. Roads send strong signals. The time to invest in Ekiti is now. Imagine a world-class conference centre along that corridor capable of hosting international, national and regional events. With proximity to the cargo airport, access roads, academic institutions, and emerging residential estates, the ecosystem is forming organically. The ring road has opened a new vista for the entire state. Beyond Ado, other ongoing road projects, both intra-city and inter-city and federal, are strengthening Ekiti’s connectivity to sister states: Ondo, Osun, Kwara, and Kogi. Regional integration is no longer aspirational; it is infrastructural. There is even a conversation about a proposed rail line that would pass through Ekiti en route to Northern Nigeria. Whether imminent or medium-term, such prospects reflect a state increasingly positioned within broader national logistics networks. These projects are not accidents or mere coincidences.

They are possible where there is political stability, continuity of governance, disciplined fiscal management, and a master blueprint for sub-national development. Sustainable infrastructure requires more than groundbreaking ceremonies; it demands financial engineering, stakeholder coordination, and leadership alignment. It takes a team. It takes a leader who understands his role not merely as administrator but as unifier and burden-bearer, one willing to pursue long-term gains even when immediate applause is muted. Governance often requires decisions whose raison d’être becomes clear only in retrospect. Today, the trajectory is visible. A more connected Ekiti. An economically integrated Ekiti. A knowledge-driven Ekiti. A state positioning itself as an agro-logistics and hospitality destination. A state whose infrastructure is beginning to match its intellectual capital. The future looks bright, green, flourishing, and prosperous. Ekiti is open for business.

Ekiti govt okays N2.51bn for roads, agric projects

Ekiti State Government has approved over N2.51 billion for road construction, compensation to affected property owners, and agricultural development initiatives across the state.

The Commissioner for Information, Taiwo Olatunbosun, disclosed this in a statement issued on Thursday in Ado Ekiti, following resolutions reached at the State Executive Council meeting.

According to him, the approvals include N2.187 billion for the construction of the GRA 3rd Extension to the Pavilion on New Iyin Road which he said is designed to improve connectivity within the GRA axis, strengthen links to adjoining roads, and enhance traffic flow and urban mobility.

Olatunbosun noted that earlier phases of the GRA 3rd Extension were awarded to Rudy Construction Nigeria Limited, with Phases I and II substantially completed and significant progress recorded on Phase III.

He explained that extending the road to the Pavilion would create a strategic connection to New Iyin Road, prompting the government to retain the same contractor due to proven performance and proximity to the site.

The council also approved N184.8m as compensation for 318 property owners affected by expansion and rehabilitation of the Odo-Ado Roundabout-Golf Club stretch along Ijan Road.

The commissioner said that the approval aligns with plans by Federal Government to reconstruct and widen the Ado-Ijan Road, a major access route serving key institutions such as Afe Babalola University and Federal Polytechnic Ado Ekiti, as well as the Ekiti Agro-Allied International Cargo Airport.

In the agricultural sector, the council approved N240m for the construction of 32 grain storage cribs in 12 communities under the Bring Back Our Youths to Agriculture Scheme.

According to Olatunbosun, the project will be executed by MARFIK-T Investment Limited and funded from the 2026 budget, with completion expected within eight weeks.

He added that the storage facilities are intended to boost grain preservation, curb post-harvest losses, and support youth participation in farming.

He added that the initiative highlights the administration’s focus on food security, youth empowerment, and sustainable socio-economic growth across Ekiti State.

FCT Poll: APGA vows to unseat APC, raises alarm over voter intimidation

The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has expressed confidence in dethroning the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Saturday Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Federal Capital Territory (FCT) council elections.

Addressing a Press conference in Abuja, APGA’s AMAC chairmanship candidate, Comrade Eze Onyebuchi Chukwu, alleged that some chiefs within the territory were already intimidating residents, especially non-indigens that there will be sanctions for not voting for their preferred candidate.

Chukwu said the matter would be reported to security agencies but downplayed its potential impact, saying that APGA is contesting to win.

Onyebuchi Chukwu, who is also the party’s National Youth Leader, also used the opportunity to discuss his ‘SMART AMAC’ agenda of Social welfare and security, Modern governance, Accountability, Rural-inclusive governance, and Technology-driven administration, adding that he will use technology to fight corruption for the development of the Council.

Chukwu also promised that if voted into power, there will be free medical care for pregnant women, free basic education, skills acquisition programs, and improved welfare for teachers, including payment of salary arrears.

He berated the current state of affairs in AMAC, promising that if voted into power, he will transform the landscape of the Federal Capital Territory.

‘The kind of revenue coming into AMAC is more than what some two states receive combined, yet much of it ends up in private pockets. We are coming to ensure those funds work for the masses,’ Chukwu said.

The party expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), describing the council poll as a ‘litmus test’ ahead of the 2027 general elections.

‘The people are tired of bad governance. APGA presents the best alternative, and that is what we need to win,’ Chukwu added.

He also praised the APGA administration in Anambra state, promising that the same feat will be replicated in AMAC.

Also speaking APGA National Secretary, Ibrahim Mani, said the party is fully mobilized across the FCT and prepared to ‘capture political power’ in AMAC.

‘Our candidate has worked tirelessly across almost every nook and corner of the council area and would not allow the mandate of the people to be undermined, he promised.’

Transition to oil production could be risky, warns BoU

The transition to commercial oil production offers major economic promise, but also carries significant risks if poorly managed, Bank of Uganda deputy governor Augustus Nuwagaba has warned.

Uganda confirmed the discovery of crude oil reserves in 2006 in the Lake Albert Basin, and the country’s petroleum resource base has since grown from an estimated 3.5 billion barrels to about 6.58 billion barrels, of which approximately 1.65 billion barrels are recoverable.

Gas resources are estimated at 600 billion cubic feet. Commercial oil production is expected to begin in late 2026. At peak production, projected at 230,000 barrels per day, Uganda could earn billions of dollars in export revenues.

Some crude will be used domestically, while the rest will be refined at a planned $2.5b refinery and exported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline to Tanzania’s Port of Tanga.

However, speaking at the 5th Stanbic Economic Forum in Kampala under the theme ‘Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Global Economy,’ Prof Nuwagaba cautioned against viewing oil as a cure-all for Uganda’s economic challenges.

‘To all of us who think this is going to be the God-given Messiah to settle all our problems, that will be the greatest mistake,’ he said, noting that while Uganda has established the legal and institutional frameworks to manage oil revenues, insufficient public awareness could create distortions in the economy.

One key risk is the so-called ‘resource curse’ or ‘Dutch disease,’ where heavy reliance on oil could lead to currency appreciation, making sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing less competitive.

Prof Nuwagaba warned of the ‘resource movement effect,’ where workers abandon farming and other productive sectors in pursuit of oil-related opportunities, a shift that could undermine food security and economic diversification.

Globally, oil-dependent countries also face price volatility and revenue instability, which can complicate national budgeting. Countries with weak non-oil revenue bases risk fiscal vulnerability, especially if debt servicing absorbs large portions of domestic revenue.

Mr Jibran Qureishi, the Standard Bank Group head of Africa economic research, projected steady economic expansion in the coming years, supported by oil-sector investments and sustained public infrastructure spending, including Afcon stadium construction and potentially the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

Although first oil is anticipated in late 2026, Mr Qureishi said the most significant macroeconomic effects, particularly on fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and the balance of payments, are likely to become more pronounced closer to 2030 as production ramps up.

Stanbic Bank chief executive Mumba Kalifungwa said the arrival of the first oil will significantly reshape Uganda’s fiscal position, industrial capacity, and regional standing, and that beyond production numbers, there would be job creation, local supplier development, skills transfer, and long-term national capacity building.

National Planning Authority Executive Director Joseph Muvawala called on businesses to align with government strategy and urged regulators to support rather than stifle enterprises, warning that business closures translate into job losses.

To borrow and protect innovations: Why business formalisation is rising

The economy is recalibrating, and data from Uganda Registration Services Bureau (URSB) suggest the change is happening on multiple fronts.

The URSB Annual Report 2024/25 shows a sharp rise in borrowing, explosive growth in creative sector registrations, a surge in copyright filings, and, at the same time, a slowdown in small business name registrations and foreign trademark applications.

The data tells a story of an economy that is becoming more formal and credit-driven, but also one that may be placing pressure on smaller enterprises.

The credit boom

The biggest headline from the report is the 66 percent jump in security interest registrations, rising from 11,394 in June 2024 to 18,913 in June 2025. This suggests more businesses are borrowing and formally registering their loans.

The report further shows that discharges rose by 462 percent, while cancellation notices increased by 487 percent under the Security Interest in Movable Property Registry (SIMPO), signalling that loans are not just being taken, they are actually being repaid, refinanced, or restructured.

SIMPO allows lenders or any other person to conduct an electronic search on a movable asset to determine whether it is encumbered.

The URSB data indicates that businesses appear to be increasingly willing to use movable assets such as vehicles, machinery, and inventory as collateral, which means deeper access to financing for both large and small enterprises.

Creative sector awakened

The report also indicates that the creative and innovation economy appears to be stepping into the formal space.

Industrial design registrations increased by 328 percent, while applications rose by 70.8 percent. That is not a marginal rise; it is a leap.

Industrial designs cover the visual appearance of products, from fashion items and packaging to manufactured goods.

Such growth suggests that entrepreneurs and designers are increasingly seeking protection for their work.

This signals a maturing creative economy, one that recognises intellectual property not just as legal paperwork, but as business capital.

Copyright filings surge

The momentum extends further to copyright registrations, which during the period under review rose by 42.7 percent, which may reflect growth in music, film, publishing, software development, and online content creation.

In a digital age where creative work is distributed through streaming platforms and online marketplaces, protecting ownership has become critical.

The numbers suggest more creators appear to be formalising their rights, a possible sign that the digital content economy is expanding and becoming more commercially conscious.

However, while some strands have expanded, some have either stagnated or retreated.

Foreign brand activity slows

While local intellectual property filings are rising, foreign trademark activity tells a different story.

Foreign trademark applications declined by 21 percent, while renewals fell by 14.4 percent. By contrast, local trademark applications rose by 11.4 percent.

This shift could reflect global economic pressures affecting international companies. It also suggests that domestic enterprises are becoming more confident and competitive.

Whether this is a temporary slowdown or part of a broader trend in foreign investment remains to be seen. But the divergence between local and foreign filings is notable.

New company registrations hold

New company registrations remained largely stable, with a total of 28,408 new companies registered, compared to 28,414 in June 2024, a marginal decline of just 0.02 percent.

The near-flat growth suggests resilience in formal company formation despite broader economic adjustments.

While business name registrations dropped by 20.5 percent during the same period, incorporated company registrations held firm, indicating sustained investor confidence in structured business entities.

The data points to a shift in preference toward limited liability companies rather than sole proprietorships and also suggests that entrepreneurs continue to formalise operations, even as smaller informal operators show signs of caution.

Pressure on small businesses?

Business name registrations fell by 20.5 percent, while annual returns declined slightly, and company forms and resolutions dropped by 8.2 percent. Interestingly, new company registrations remained almost unchanged.

This pattern may suggest that while incorporated companies are holding steady, smaller sole proprietorships could be slowing down formal registration. Economic pressure, cost concerns, or business consolidation may be playing a role. The drop hints at caution among smaller operators.